citizen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.088	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
79.956	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
78.200	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
55.838	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
51.514	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.877	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
42.725	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.409	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
37.337	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
36.171	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
33.860	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
30.442	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
29.304	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
28.383	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
28.121	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
27.863	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
27.862	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
27.515	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
27.378	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
27.081	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
27.036	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
26.016	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
25.723	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
25.641	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
23.890	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
22.936	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
22.408	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
22.114	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
21.640	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
21.573	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
20.716	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
19.620	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
19.319	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
18.428	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.291	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
17.002	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
16.287	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
16.111	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
15.716	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
15.162	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
15.074	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
13.831	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
13.783	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
13.665	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
13.430	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
13.379	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
13.227	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
12.491	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
12.379	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.257	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
12.201	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
11.999	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
11.425	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
10.905	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
10.892	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
10.678	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
10.544	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
10.144	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
9.321	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
8.551	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
8.442	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
8.393	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
7.639	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
7.371	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
7.219	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
7.111	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
6.951	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
6.884	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
6.571	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
6.513	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
5.913	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
5.831	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
5.208	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
5.104	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
5.072	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
5.062	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
4.691	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
4.560	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
4.501	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
4.459	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
4.217	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
4.019	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
3.882	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
3.703	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
3.429	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
2.843	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
2.699	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
2.686	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
2.453	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
2.431	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
2.244	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
2.208	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
2.069	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
2.015	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
1.911	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
1.523	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
1.496	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
1.285	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
1.006	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
0.980	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
0.928	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
0.831	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
0.714	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
0.666	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
0.555	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
0.486	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
0.406	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
0.299	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
0.163	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.120	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
0.074	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
0.063	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-0.001	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
-0.151	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-0.697	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
-0.740	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
-0.802	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-0.844	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
-1.298	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
-1.345	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-1.765	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
-1.813	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
-2.061	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
-2.201	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
-2.401	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
-2.446	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
-2.759	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
-3.374	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.992	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-4.873	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
-5.156	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
-5.684	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
-5.792	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
-5.945	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
-6.478	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-6.760	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
-6.895	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
-6.912	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-7.439	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
-8.133	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
-8.457	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-9.168	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
-9.609	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
-10.095	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-10.191	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
-10.625	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
-12.648	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
-13.456	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
-14.044	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
-15.528	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
-15.536	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
-15.601	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
-17.212	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-18.761	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
-19.537	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
-21.459	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
-21.564	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
-21.632	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-23.379	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
-26.718	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
-27.340	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
-37.896	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-39.582	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
-41.921	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-47.633	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-57.316	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
-59.806	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-82.174	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-91.095	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous