Metaculus Cup
May 5th to Sep 1stPrize Pool: $5,000
Join us and make quick predictions on topical questions. Each week, a few new questions will be available to forecast on. We welcome both new and experienced forecasters to participate. Beginners can learn how Metaculus works while veterans can showcase their expertise.
Forecasting Basics
Forecasting is the practice of making explicit predictions about the future.
Instead of vague assertions, forecasters share:
Instead of vague assertions, forecasters share:
- Specific probabilities
- Concrete dates
- Measurable outcomes
Instead of saying:
"There's a big risk of recession sometime soon."—a forecaster might specify that "there's a 60% chance the US enters a recession in the next 12 months." Much clearer! We might agree or disagree with them, but now we know how likely they think it is and when they think it'll happen. If ultimately they're right, we know it. If they're wrong, well, at least they were willing to say what they actually believed with clarity and accountability.
That's what Metaculus is all about: questions that matter to people, clearly defined, giving you the ability to make forecasts and follow up on whether they were accurate.
Tip: Use the Community
Check the comments and community forecasts for additional insights.
Tip: Stay Updated
Return to questions to update your forecast as new data emerges.
How to Participate
1Log in or create a Metaculus account.
2Browse available questions for the Cup.
3Submit your predictions before questions close.
4Track your performance on the leaderboard.
Review Metaculus's Terms of Use, including important rules for contest participation.