delivering quantitative wisdom calculating critical contingencies assembling predictive forecasts delivering precise futures calculating calibrated insights mapping the future predicting calibrated predictions exploring critical forecasts calculating critical predictions calculating calibrated estimations forecasting predictive futures delivering calibrated contingencies modeling intelligent predictions assembling contingent predictions

Features

The focus of Metaculus will always be connecting people with a shared affection for predicting the future and gathering up Meaningless Internet Points (MIPs), but sometimes we create features and run odd experiments that don't slot neatly onto the big board of forecasts. Such pieces of content will live here on the Features page. If you have ideas for our next initiative or criticism of past efforts, you can share your thoughts with christian@metaculus.com.

Finance.Metaculus

Finance.Metaculus is a super-specialized Metaculus offshoot that lets users (and an assortment of friendly bots) make predictions on the closing prices of various equities. Right now, this site exists mostly as an experiment to see what such an entity would look like, but if we flesh out the idea, you'll be the first to know.

Elon Musk Timeline

When Elon Musk isn't busy feuding with Azealia Banks, the tech mogul can often be found waxing prophetic, laying down timelines for missions to Mars or for the rapid ascent of AI overlords. We collected a bunch of these predictions and set them alongside the Metaculus community's own forecasts about Musk, about his ventures, and about Musk's own prognostications.

AI Milestones Timeline

We assembled a timeline displaying when Metaculus users expect a number of AI-related developments to come to fruition, and we supplemented these with probable dates provided by AI experts surveyed by Katja Grace, Nick Bostrom, and others.

Metaculus Patreon

Someone's gotta pay the server bills. If you've enjoyed Metaculus and want to see it thrive into the future, you can materially show us how you feel while also netting yourself special perks and voting rights bestowed only upon our loyal Patrons.