MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

Metaculus News

+ Create Article

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The Gap

Feb 19, 2025•by sandman•9 comments•18 min read

Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified

Jan 24, 2025•by sandman•24 comments•4 min read

How "Scope Sensitive" are o1-preview and GPT4o's forecasts? Not very.

Dec 9, 2024•by Tom_Metaculus•3 comments•3 min read

Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

Nov 19, 2024•by dyncheng•5 comments•9 min read

Comparing Forecasting Track Records for AI Benchmarking and Beyond

Sep 25, 2024•by Tom_Metaculus•24 comments•26 min read

Conditional Trees for AI Risk: A New Question Series and Report

Aug 23, 2024•by lbiii• no comments•4 min read

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

Feb 12, 2021•by juancambeiro• no comments•19 min read

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

Apr 28, 2021•by juancambeiro• no comments•13 min read

Can Metaculus Create A Trading Signal?

Jun 12, 2021•by Gaia• no comments•5 min read

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?

Nov 7, 2023•by nikos• no comments•20 min read