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Research
Announcing Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament
May 1, 2026
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by BenWilson
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no comments
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6 min read
Research
Fall 2025 FutureEval Bot-Maker Survey: What Winners Did Differently
May 1, 2026
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by gracemclain
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no comments
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9 min read
Research
Advice from Bot Makers to Bot Makers (Fall 2025)
May 1, 2026
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by BenWilson
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no comments
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13 min read
Research
Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub
Apr 20, 2026
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by urgentfutures
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1 comment
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2 min read
Research
Metaculus Launches FutureEval to Measure the Forecasting Accuracy of AI
Feb 18, 2026
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by christian
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no comments
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6 min read
Research
Introducing FutureEval, our new home for AI forecasting
Feb 12, 2026
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by deger
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11 comments
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5 min read
Research
The FutureEval model leaderboard
Feb 10, 2026
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by Sylvain
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10 comments
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9 min read
Research
Forecasting for Scientific & Technological Exploration
Jan 7, 2026
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by anand.muthusamy
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no comments
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29 min read
Research
Announcing Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark
Dec 17, 2025
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by BenWilson
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no comments
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6 min read
Research
Q2 AI Benchmark Results: Pros Maintain Clear Lead
Oct 26, 2025
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by BenWilson
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6 comments
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33 min read
Research
$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index
Sep 11, 2025
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by christian
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20 comments
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3 min read
Research
Warmup MiniBench Is Live!
Aug 19, 2025
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by christian
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no comments
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1 min read
Research
Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index
Jul 14, 2025
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by RyanBeck
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6 comments
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1 min read
Research
Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots
Jun 21, 2025
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by BenWilson
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3 comments
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31 min read
Research
Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting
Jun 9, 2025
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by BenWilson
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2 comments
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10 min read
Research
Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The Gap
Feb 19, 2025
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by sandman
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9 comments
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18 min read
Research
Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified
Jan 24, 2025
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by sandman
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26 comments
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4 min read
Research
How "Scope Sensitive" are o1-preview and GPT4o's forecasts? Not very.
Dec 9, 2024
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by Tom_Metaculus
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3 comments
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3 min read
Research
Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures
Nov 19, 2024
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by dyncheng
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1 comment
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9 min read
Research
Comparing Forecasting Track Records for AI Benchmarking and Beyond
Sep 25, 2024
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by Tom_Metaculus
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28 comments
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26 min read
Research
Conditional Trees for AI Risk: A New Question Series and Report
Aug 23, 2024
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by lbiii
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no comments
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4 min read
Research
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?
Nov 7, 2023
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by nikos
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no comments
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20 min read
Research
Comparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal World
Oct 9, 2023
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by nikos
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no comments
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8 min read
Research
Exploring Metaculus’s AI Track Record
May 30, 2023
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by MetaculusOutlooks
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10 comments
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9 min read
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