Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
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Congratulations to the winners of our [first ever Metaculus Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2025/)! This summer saw a number of significant events including the [collapse](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37112/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-sep-2025/) of the US-Iran nuclear deal, the [advances](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38812/will-russia-capture-any-of-the-following-cities-before-september-2025/) of Russia in Ukraine, and the brief but deadly [conflict](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37328/india-pakistan-conflict-with-100-deaths-in-mayjune-2025/) between India and Pakistan. Our community rose to the challenge of predicting these and other complex developments. The top three finishers on the forecasting leaderboard, competing for \$3,500, are: 1. [Sergio](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/115725/) 2. [Big-eyed](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114613/) 3. [lubossaloky](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/135380/) In addition to their prizes, the top three finishers in this and future iterations of the Metaculus Cup will also receive a custom Metaculus 20-sided die.  Bots cannot win prizes in the Metaculus Cup, but congratulations to [manticAI](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/191026/) who came in 8th, **the best rank a bot has ever achieved competing with human forecasters**. Will manticAI maintain its edge in the fall iteration of our [AI Forecasting Benchmark](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)? Along with the forecasting prize, the Metaculus Cup has a commenting prize. In the Summer 2025 iteration, we awarded \$1,500 to the top 10 comments that were clearly reasoned, provided valuable information, argued against the community prediction, utilized our (then new) Key Factors feature, and received "Change My Mind" votes. These comments were: 1. benshindel [on the number of new UNESCO inscriptions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38367/#comment-358789) 2. exmateriae [on Revolut (not) getting a full banking license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36399/#comment-326502) 3. exmateriae [on China slowly dumping U.S. Treasury securities](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/38436/#comment-364229) 4. Sergio [on Taiwan's nuclear power plant referendum being uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38896/#comment-369894) 5. Zaldath [on no major hurricane likely making a landfall](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38813/#comment-366174) 6. exmateriae [on the history of BRICS and new members](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37887/#comment-347823) 7. AlexK864 [on "tariff" disappearing from the NYT/WSJ front pages](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36934/#comment-334885) 8. WasteTimeContinuum [on the possibility of Somaliland's recognition](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38646/#comment-366210) 9. exmateriae [on Superman's worldwide box office](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37910/#comment-356716) 10. WasteTimeContinuum [on China not banning a rare earth element exports](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38440/#comment-365117) For more high quality comments check out our new [Comments of the Week](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?weekly_top_comments=true) leaderboard. A special mention to Zaldath, who despite having only one comment in the top 10 was one of the very top overall contributors to the Cup. Starting with the [Fall 2025 Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-fall-2025/), users will be rewarded for their total contributions to recognize both deep research and quick updates or general participation in the discussion. A big round of applause for our winners! We will contact you soon to arrange prize-giving and shipment of your Metaculus-branded dice. And congratulations to all the medal winners in the tournament. ## Forecast in the Fall 2025 Metaculus Cup The [next iteration of the Metaculus Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-fall-2025/) has already began, with questions on [the new Prime Minister of France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39700/french-pms-grouping-on-december-31-2025/), the [Ebola outbreak in DRC](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39781/deaths-from-ebola-kasai-province-outbreak-in-2025/), the [US-Venezuela tensions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336/us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026/) and many more. It also has a new prize distribution, with half of the total prize (\$2,500) going to the top 8 contributors to the discussion. Join forecasters and commenters to compete for prizes, medals, and a custom-made 20-sided die!