<p>The <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/">ACX 2025 Prediction Contest</a> has concluded! 2,975 forecasters submitted predictions before the January 31st cutoff, competing for the \$10,000 prize pool across 36 questions. More than 4,500 participated over the course of the year.</p>

<h3>2025 Top Forecasters</h3>

| Rank | Participant                                                                           | Total Score |
| ---- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------- |
| 1    | [PeterWildeford](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100912/ "PeterWildeford") | 1419        |
| 2    | [mAd-topo](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/245888/ "mAd-topo")             | 1400        |
| 3    | [Haiku](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/145394/ "Haiku")                   | 1348        |
| 4    | [PlankFlank](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/253833/ "PlankFlank")         | 1262        |
| 5    | [andrew.clough](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100532/ "andrew.clough")   | 1257        |

<p><a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-419">Scott Alexander highlighted</a> this year's winner: <strong>Peter Wildeford</strong>, a leader at <a href="https://rethinkpriorities.org/">Rethink Priorities</a> and the <a href="https://www.iaps.ai/">Institute for AI Policy and Strategy</a>, and a blogger at <a href="https://peterwildeford.substack.com/">The Power Law</a>. (He also sits on Metaculus's board of directors.) Said Scott "I often rely on his blogging for my geopolitical opinions, and these contest results suggest that you should too." Congratulations, Peter! </p>

<p>Also, mAd-topo, Haiku, PlankFlank, and Andrew Clough: You can message Scott at scott\[at]slatestarcodex\[dot]com if you want him to profile you or signal-boost your work on a future Astral Codex Ten Open Thread.</p>

***

<p>For ACX 2025, participants tackled questions like:</p>

<ul>
  <li><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31121/ceasefire-in-the-russo-ukraine-conflict-before-2026/">Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31307/will-nvda-outperform-spy-in-2025/">Will Nvidia outperform the S\&P 500 in 2025?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31255/google-meta-amazon-tesla-or-x-accept-crypto-at-end-2025/">On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117/argentinas-yoy-inflation-below-30-for-december-2025/">Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?</a></li>
</ul>

<p>You can find all questions and community predictions, plus a full leaderboard, on the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/">ACX 2025 tournament page</a>.</p>

***

<p>Congratulations to all prize and medal winners! We will be in touch to arrange payments soon. As always, we're happy to facilitate donations to the organizations listed <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11556/donating-tournament-prizes/">here</a>.</p>

<p>Finally, a reminder that we're also hosting the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/">ACX 2026 contest</a>. And while the prize eligibility window has closed, you can still forecast and help sharpen the community's expectations for 2026.</p>