The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest has concluded! 2,975 forecasters submitted predictions before the January 31st cutoff, competing for the \$10,000 prize pool across 36 questions. More than 4,500 participated over the course of the year.

2025 Top Forecasters

| Rank | Participant | Total Score | | ---- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------- | | 1 | [PeterWildeford](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100912/ "PeterWildeford") | 1419 | | 2 | [mAd-topo](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/245888/ "mAd-topo") | 1400 | | 3 | [Haiku](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/145394/ "Haiku") | 1348 | | 4 | [PlankFlank](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/253833/ "PlankFlank") | 1262 | | 5 | [andrew.clough](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100532/ "andrew.clough") | 1257 |

Scott Alexander highlighted this year's winner: Peter Wildeford, a leader at Rethink Priorities and the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, and a blogger at The Power Law. (He also sits on Metaculus's board of directors.) Said Scott "I often rely on his blogging for my geopolitical opinions, and these contest results suggest that you should too." Congratulations, Peter!

Also, mAd-topo, Haiku, PlankFlank, and Andrew Clough: You can message Scott at scott\[at]slatestarcodex\[dot]com if you want him to profile you or signal-boost your work on a future Astral Codex Ten Open Thread.

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For ACX 2025, participants tackled questions like:

You can find all questions and community predictions, plus a full leaderboard, on the ACX 2025 tournament page.

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Congratulations to all prize and medal winners! We will be in touch to arrange payments soon. As always, we're happy to facilitate donations to the organizations listed here.

Finally, a reminder that we're also hosting the ACX 2026 contest. And while the prize eligibility window has closed, you can still forecast and help sharpen the community's expectations for 2026.

Announcing the ACX 2025 Contest Winners!