We've released [Ergo](https://github.com/oughtinc/ergo), a Python library for forecasting that people can use, provide feedback on, and contribute to. 

With Ergo you can 

- Import questions and community forecast distributions from Metaculus and Foretold
- Write models that relate different questions to each other by using community distributions as random variables 
- Submit model predictions back to Metaculus, automatically converting them into the right format
- Specify distributions using 90% confidence intervals
- Sample from other primitive distributions

To get you started, we've implemented Ergo in a few Colab notebooks with models that predict

- Confirmed case counts
- Lockdown duration 
- “True” cases (includes cases that haven't been tested)

Next up on our roadmap are features that let you

- Define and store links across Metaculus questions to sense check predictions or follow certain questions in Colab 
- Track community distribution changes

We hope this makes it easier for Metaculites to build models and update them regularly. You can find [Ergo documentation here](https://ergo.ought.org/). 

Feel free to email us at [ergo@ought.org](ergo@ought.org) to 

- Request features
- Ask questions or provide feedback 
- Ask for help building a model if you're not familiar with Python. We’ll consider building a model for you if it’s consistent with the Ergo roadmap

Happy forecasting!