The Respiratory Outlook update for May arrives with hantavirus dominating headlines after a cluster of cases tied to the cruise ship MV Hondius. The[ <u>**Respiratory Outlook 2025/26**</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/) is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.

Compared with the[ <u>**April edition**</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43264/respiratory-outlook-april-update/), predictions this month show:

* Hantavirus may seem alarming, but forecasters have assigned just a[ <u>2% probability</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43468/hantavirus-pheic-before-2027/) of WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this year and a 15% chance of [<u>at least 5 non-passengers</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43461/5-non-ship-cases-linked-to-the-hondius-outbreak-before-aug-2026/) with confirmed cases linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship cluster. Forecasters note that transmission typically requires onset of acute symptoms, quarantine remains effective despite the long 1-8 week incubation period.
* A further drop in 2026 measles case estimates to [<u>3,498</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42089/of-us-measles-cases-in-2026/) as the rate of new cases continues to decelerate, even with[ <u>confirmed cases now at 1,842</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html). Forecasters raised the probability of PAHO[ <u>revoking the US's measles elimination status</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42517/will-the-us-lose-measles-elimination-status-before-2027/) before 2027 to 80%, up from 72% last month.
* New World screwworm local transmission probability [<u>holding at 18%</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42476/us-acquired-nws-infection-before-2027/) despite[ <u>cases reported in northern Coahuila</u>](https://beaconbio.org/en/report/?reportid=8ba7ffcd-89a8-4aec-a4c2-9bc476d5361f\&eventid=7a1ae0cb-6d86-4ea3-95cc-c1c141b3f696\&species=25aad541-a696-4680-972d-d9627abfa171), 119 miles from the Texas border.

## [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Respiratory-Outlook-Update-May-2026)

## [**Share your forecasts**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/)