The [US Midterms 2026 tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/) launches today! Forecast on 48 questions tracking congressional and gubernatorial races, with more on the way.

## What the community is currently forecasting

Some of the questions have already been live, offering early insights into our community’s predictions for November outcomes. These include:

* **Democrats at 87% to retake the House.** One major factor driving that: California Prop 50, which forecasters estimate adds 3-5 Democratic seats to the map. The modal outcome, at 54.3%, is a split Congress: Republican Senate, Democratic House.
* **Senate control is tighter.** Republicans are currently favored at 55% to hold their majority. The median Republican advantage sits at just +1 seat, with the interval running from -1 to +3.
* **Two special elections add complexity.** Ohio and Florida both have Class III seats up (replacing Vance and Rubio), bringing the total Senate seats in play to 35.
* **We’re tracking state-level Senate races too.** Georgia (80.2% Democratic), Michigan (80%), Maine (69%), Iowa (37%), and five others.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34484/

## Why your forecast matters

Conventional midterm "wisdom" is only a starting point. Aggregate polls miss district-level dynamics, candidate quality gaps, and how demographic shifts play out unevenly across the map. If you've got a specific take, put a number on it! 

Find the full tournament [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/) to start forecasting.