The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!
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Five months before the 2026 midterms, Metaculus forecasters see Democrats as strong favorites to retake the House, while Republicans are only slight favorites to hold the Senate. The most likely outcome right now: split control of Congress. Our new [<u>2026 US Midterms Tracker</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/midterms-2026/) brings those forecasts together in one place, covering House, Senate, gubernatorial races, seat distributions, key indicators, and policy forecasts conditional on who controls Congress. Many of these questions appear in our [<u>US Midterms 2026 tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/), which carries a \$10,000 prize pool.  Here's what the community is currently seeing in more detail, about 5 months out from the November elections. ## **Congressional Control** Democrats are heavy favorites to retake the House, at 89%. The Senate is closer: Republicans are at 59% to hold their majority. The most likely outcome according to forecasters is a split Congress. A Republican Senate paired with a Democratic House sits at 49% probability. Full Republican control comes in at 10%; full Democratic control at 40%. The Senate math is tight. Forecasters' aggregate forecast right now is a tied chamber, with the middle 50% of forecasts ranging from a 2-seat Democratic edge to a 3-seat Republican edge. And 35 seats are in play this cycle, including two special elections: Ohio and Florida, replacing Vance and Rubio. ## **What the Tracker Shows You** **Seat distributions.** Forecasters' estimates of where the final seat balance lands in each chamber. You can see where the community's confidence is concentrated and where it's thinner.  **Key Drivers.** We have forecasts on questions that could move the top-line forecasts. For example, the question “Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?” will influence the outcome of the overall vote and voter demographics, and forecasters currently see a 62% chance of this happening.  **Electoral Consequences.** The Tracker shows how predicted policy outcomes shift depending on which party holds Congress.  **Community Insights.** Forecasters leave their reasoning on questions. The Tracker surfaces some of it. If you want to understand *why* the numbers are where they are, this is where to look.  ## **The Tournament** The Tracker is connected to the [<u>Midterms Tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/), which carries a \$10,000 prize pool. The tournament has 48 questions tracking congressional and gubernatorial races, with more on the way. If you think you can call these elections accurately, that's the place to put a number on it. Visit [<u>the Tracker here</u>](http://metaculus.com/midterms-2026) to learn more.