The Respiratory Outlook update for July reports ongoing spread of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas and New Mexico, while the Ebola outbreak rages in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The[ <u>**Respiratory Outlook 2025/26**</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/) is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.

Compared with the[ <u>**June edition**</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/44170/respiratory-outlook-june-update/), predictions this month show:

* Forecasters now expect 140[<u> confirmed animal cases</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43869/how-many-screwworm-animal-cases-will-there-be-in-the-us-before-2026/) of NWS this year, though estimates are climbing as detections spread. They anticipate slowed spread with increased USDA containment efforts, including sterile insect releases.
* The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC has passed [<u>2073 confirmed cases</u>](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON607), with forecasters putting the eventual outbreak size over [<u>15,000</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43726/how-many-confirmed-cases-in-the-2026-ebola-outbreak/) as the outbreak appears largely uncontained. They give just a [<u>10% chance</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43606/ebola-bundibugyo-case-first-confirmed-on-us-soil-before-2027/) of a case first confirmed on US soil before 2027, citing limited travel between current outbreak zones, but with an eye on the cities where the virus may spread.&nbsp;
* Measles case estimates are maintained at [<u>3,462</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42089/of-us-measles-cases-in-2026/) with[ <u>confirmed cases now at 2,231</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) in the typically slow summer months. Forecasters raised the probability of The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)[ <u>revoking the US's measles elimination status</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42517/will-the-us-lose-measles-elimination-status-before-2027/) before 2027 to 95%, with only direct political intervention preventing the act.
* Hantavirus and Clade I Mpox stay low-risk. The MV *Hondius* outbreak is [<u>over</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43461/5-non-ship-cases-linked-to-the-hondius-outbreak-before-aug-2026/), confirming forecasters’ consistently low projections around the disease. Clade I Mpox is expected to reach [<u>39 US cases</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42530/of-us-clade-i-mpox-cases-before-2027/) by year-end, amid uncertainty due to CDC surveillance issues.&nbsp;

## [**Read the full report**](https://www.metaculus.com/files/Respiratory-Outlook-Update-July-2026)

## [**Share your forecasts**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/respiratory-outlook-25-26/)