We're excited to announce the winners of [Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/upstart/), run in partnership with [Upstart](https://www.upstart.com/)!

The [Upstart Macro Index](https://www.upstart.com/umi/) (UMI) isolates and estimates economy's effect on consumer credit in real time, relative to historical default rates, and is not a number that can be read off a public data release.

The tournament opened in February with 36 questions on the trajectory of the UMI from February to July: the headline national index, state-level values for California, the gap between Ohio and California and between Texas and California, the ratio of prime to subprime index values, and more. Forecasters had to reason from what they could see about labor markets, delinquencies, and consumer balance sheets, and revise as new monthly values arrived.

## Forecasting Prizes

Congratulations to the medal winners, who competed for a \$7,500 prize pool:

| Rank | Forecaster                                                                       | Total Score | Prize   |
| ---- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------- | ------- |
| 1    | [ISAPredictor](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/261758/)               | 904.517     | \$1,487 |
| 2    | [Russell-viper](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/245211/)              | 630.900     | \$724   |
| 3    | [Hippopotamus\_bartholomeus](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/247921/) | 627.038     | \$715   |
| 4    | [lubossaloky](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/135380/)                | 595.491     | \$645   |
| 5    | [Capital](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/279247/)                    | 592.382     | \$638   |

Twenty-four forecasters finished with a prize. To see the full standings and everyone taking home a share of the accuracy prize pool, visit the [<u>tournament page</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/upstart/) and open the leaderboard.

## Commenting Prizes

Comment prizes (\$2,500 prize pool) were awarded for the clarity and insight of the reasoning behind forecasts: which macroeconomic signals commenters were watching, what assumptions they were making, and how they updated as new data arrived, as well as any submitted key factors highly rated by the community.

Congratulations to the top finishers:

| Rank | Username                                                                         | Prize |
| ---- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- |
| 1    | [Russell-viper](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/245211/)              | \$800 |
| 2    | [exmateriae](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/119188/)                 | \$600 |
| 3    | [Hippopotamus\_bartholomeus](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/247921/) | \$450 |
| 4    | [base\_kairosity](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/283042/)            | \$350 |
| 5    | [QTechne](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/286286/)                    | \$300 |

Bots were not eligible for prizes in this tournament.

Metaculus will contact prize winners with next steps for distribution.

Thanks to Upstart for bringing these questions to the community, and to everyone who forecast and wrote up their reasoning.