All of our health and epidemiology forecasts now live in one place. The new [Global Health Monitor dashboard](https://www.metaculus.com/global-health-monitor/) brings together our questions on measles, Ebola, New World screwworm, chikungunya and the 2026/27 respiratory season. Next to each forecast you’ll find the latest case counts from CDC, ECDC, USDA and other official sources.
Forecasts on the dashboard update live, so you’ll always see where the community stands today. Each monthly update stays fixed once we publish it, with numbers, commentary and Pro Forecaster reasoning frozen, so you can go back through past months and see how forecasts shifted as outbreaks grew, slowed or jumped borders.
Every monthly edition includes:
* Community forecasts with 50% prediction intervals
* How each forecast changed since the last edition
* The latest official data, with its release date
* What our Pro Forecasters are saying, and why
### **This month’s key takeaways (October 2026)**
* **Respiratory season:** Forecasters flipped on the flu season’s dominant strain. Flu arrived early in the US and nearly all of it has been H1N1. Forecasters now put H1N1 at 53.9% of influenza A, up from 35.1% in September. A Moderate season is still the most likely CDC rating (67.1%), with combined hospitalizations peaking around January 3, 2027.
* **Chikungunya:** The forecast for locally acquired cases in Europe more than doubled, to 214 for 2026 (up from 98). France went from 57 to 162 local cases, and a warm autumn kept mosquitoes active later than usual.
* **New World screwworm:** The 2027 forecast rose to 68 US animal cases (+38%). Detections keep turning up near the Mexico border, and USDA confirmed the first US wildlife case, an elk in Texas. Pro Forecasters are more optimistic than the crowd, at 43 to 52 cases.
* **Measles:** The forecast for US cases in 2027 eased to 4,206 (−6%), even as 2026 cases passed 4,400. Forecasters give a 96% chance the US loses its measles elimination status before 2027.
* **Ebola:** The DRC outbreak has passed 9,200 confirmed cases and reached Kenya and Nigeria. Forecasters still put the chance of a first US case before July 2027 at 10%.
* **Russia's pneumonic plague outbreak:** Forecasters assign a less than 1% chance of this outbreak leading to 10 deaths before 2027.
### Explore [<u>the dashboard</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/global-health-monitor/), and add your own forecasts in the[ <u>Global Health Monitor 2026/27 tournament</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/global-health-monitor-26-27/).
