Hello [Alt-Protein Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/alt-protein-tournament/) Forecasters,

My name is Friederike Grosse-Holz, I hold a PhD in Biotechnology, have a strong aspiration to rationality and truth-seeking, and I here highlight a report I worked on with members of The Good Food Institute that may provide some starting points and considerations for thinking about the alternative protein industry. It's titled Food For Thought: The Protein Transformation ([short version](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2021/the-benefits-of-plant-based-meats) and [long version](https://web-assets.bcg.com/a0/28/4295860343c6a2a5b9f4e3436114/bcg-food-for-thought-the-protein-transformation-mar-2021.pdf)), and was produced by Boston Consulting Group and Blue Horizon. 

Various members of GFI were interviewed for the report and I’m glad to give back a tiny bit by contributing this piece to the tournament GFI and Metaculus are co-hosting. While I co-authored the report as part of my job at BCG, the content of the post reflects my personal views and not those of my employer. 

In the report, we estimate that the market for alternative proteins will grow to 97 million metric tons per year by 2035, when it will make up 11% of the global protein market. You may note a difference to the questions posed in the forecasting tournament here—we are working with consumption volumes, rather than revenues. We thus avoid the complexity of price developments in our model. While most alternatives today are more expensive per weight than conventional proteins, prices are coming down—and market size estimates are very sensitive to how quickly one thinks this will happen. We did make some initial estimates that assumed the willingness of consumers to pay a premium for alternative proteins will decline as they become more common and competition arises, placing plant-based meat revenues for the North America region (which includes US and Canada) at ~$5-6bn in 2022. I am excited to see that (at the time of writing) this seems in line with the community's thinking on the [Total US sales of plant-based meats in 2022](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/)!

Beyond forecasting what will happen at the dinner table, the report deep-dives on what enables the alternative protein industry. We pinpoint bottlenecks to growth beyond 11% of global protein consumption in 2035 and how they could be resolved. In a nutshell, it seems that faster technological innovation and greater regulatory support could speed growth to 22% by 2035. For instance, supply of protein crops needs to keep pace with the industry’s needs. In this context, I would be very interested in some discussion around topics like whether [Brazil will still lead global soybean production in 2022](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/). While I don’t feel I can confidently predict who will produce them, I will stipulate the soybeans won’t be the same: Optimizing their protein content, flavor, and color for human consumption seems to be a key enabler for efficient production of tasty alternative meats. And then there is the whole universe of growing meat, eggs, and dairy from microorganisms or animal cells, where innovation in low-cost feedstocks will unlock more cost-efficient production. Regulatory support, such as carbon taxes on meat or subsidies for farmers who are shifting from animal agriculture to alternative proteins, could further boost consumer uptake of alternatives. 

On the whole, I am optimistic about the growth of this industry, grateful to our colleagues at GFI for helping us with the [report](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2021/the-benefits-of-plant-based-meats) and very excited to see what the Metaculus community thinks about it!

Drop me a comment if you’d like to chat about alternative proteins or biotech in general. My username is fgrosseholz, and I can be reached at fgrosseholz(at)yahoo(dot)com.