## Introduction

In the UK, heating is the single largest emitter of CO2, [accounting for 37% of emissions](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/766109/decarbonising-heating.pdf). Of that, over half is due to space heating and hot water consumption. A further 14% is accounted for in industrial processes such as steel, cement, and ammonia manufacturing. Natural gas is the main fuel source for domestic heating as it is cheap and efficient (notwithstanding the energy crisis seen in late 2021). It’s also predominantly used in industrial processes, alongside other fossil fuels such as coal. 

![](https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/nfpXdUX1ZtTovik5GdxZXaAnGiqQ7_OaW466oum6dJtdiHompWkOFT4QfzIoAPQaOUAJ94h7NUSD3G5cYLGvO_mTDlvVlgsYGZp60xSFIP3szfeBczf6br9kwKTro65dZMSL6mJP)In 2019, the UK committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to [net zero by 2050](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-the-2008-climate-change-act/). In order to succeed, a viable alternative to natural gas must be found. Hydrogen has been touted as a potential candidate as it would avert the need for a complete infrastructure overhaul, given that natural gas and hydrogen are both gases and have comparable energy densities ([50 MJ/kg](https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/MichelleFung.shtml) and [120 MJ/k](https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/BillyWan.shtml)g respectively). 

Many solutions to deliver hydrogen have been found and the main technological challenges concern optimizing processes to make hydrogen scalable. The logistical, economic, and societal challenges appear to be of equal concern. In this essay, I set out to address these issues and put forward arguments meant to help resolve current policy predicaments. Further, I invite forecasters to predict on the question of the UK’s natural gas consumption in 2040: 

## Domestic heating in the UK

Approximatly [87% of properties](https://www.statista.com/statistics/426988/united-kingdom-uk-heating-methods/) in the UK are currently heated using natural gas. The transition from coal to natural gas provided consumers with a fuel source that is cheaper and available on-demand. Today, a competitive market for gas boilers and the consistently low unit price of natural gas has kept it as the market’s preferred fuel source. 

Although a diverse range of technologies are in development, two solutions will likely dominate the decarbonization of heat: heat pumps and hydrogen. Adopting hydrogen as a fuel source presents several challenges. Switching fuel sources has implications for the entire system, ranging from the appliances in homes to the methods of production and storage. 

[Polls show that 81%](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2020/10/consumer_opinion_about_climate_change_and_decarbonisation.pdf) of people in the UK list climate change as a primary concern. Despite this, consumers will only accept alternative measures if they are affordable. The four biggest boiler manufacturers in the UK [recently made a pact](https://www.hvnplus.co.uk/news/four-manufacturers-make-hydrogen-ready-boilers-cost-pact-29-07-2021/) to commit to ensuring the costs of hydrogen boilers will be equivalent to that of their natural gas counterparts.

Beyond cost, consumers are sensitive to how the transition from natural gas to hydrogen will occur. The gas network is extensive and interconnected; make a hard switch and whole districts would be forced to change their appliances at the same time. In light of this, Keele University and Cadent, a gas distributor, [have conducted a trial](https://www.keele.ac.uk/sustainable-futures/ourchallengethemes/providingcleanenergyreducingcarbonemissions/hydeploy/) where 100 homes were provided with natural gas that had been dosed with 20% hydrogen. All of the homes were equipped with traditional natural gas appliances and the results of the trial proved feasibility. 

This is promising. Cadent estimates that dosing the gas network with 20% hydrogen could reduce CO2 emissions by 6 million tonnes per year. In today’s terms, that accounts for 1.2% of the UK’s total CO2 emissions. 

If action is taken now, the gas network could be completely decarbonized by 2040. Measures such as [banning installations of gas boilers in new build homes by 2025](https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/news/gas-boiler-ban) are promising, but this does not bar existing homes from installing new gas boilers. More work is needed to pivot consumers toward low-carbon heating without placing such direct regulatory impositions upon them. Doing so could risk public acceptance of hydrogen as a fuel source.

The lifespan of a boiler is [approximately 10-15 years](https://www.warrantypeople.co.uk/what-is-the-life-of-a-gas-boiler/#:~:text=On%20average%2C%20a%20conventional%20gas,terms%20of%20quality%20and%20longevity.), with higher end and well serviced boilers lasting up to 20 years. If a hard deadline of 2040 for complete hydrogenation was set now, today’s newly installed boilers would be end-of-life by 2040. Worcester Bosch, a leading boiler manufacturer, have said they can produce [a hydrogen-ready boiler](https://www.worcester-bosch.co.uk/hydrogen) that would be able to convert in only one hour. Acting now would allow consumers to get the most out of their existing appliances, mitigating risks of deterring customer acceptance of hydrogen.

So far, the government has not committed to a hard deadline for decarbonizing the gas network. There are good reasons for this. Natural gas is, considering the running costs, the cheapest way to heat a home. Despite this, fuel poverty [is a persistent political issue](http://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/) in the UK. Public opinion of fuel poverty can be [particularly incendiary](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/smart-downing-street-britain-hunger-government-b1966898.html) and [press coverage](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8582173/Thousands-hard-pensioners-face-food-fuel-poverty-free-TV-licences-scrapped.html) does little to abate people’s fears.

It is little wonder why the government has been reticent in making any strong commitments so far. It could, however, mitigate the public’s concerns by ensuring that affordability of natural gas is carried over into the hydrogen era. 

## Electric space heating

Many opponents of hydrogen space heating often point to electrified space heating–namely air source heat pumps–as a viable alternative. However, heat pumps come with a large upfront cost, with one estimate putting the total [at £11,500](https://www.nu-heat.co.uk/renewables/air-source-heat-pumps/). There are also concerns that heat pumps’ efficiency is reduced at lower temperatures (i.e. when they are most used), which would translate into increased running costs. Other disadvantages are the space and noise considerations, as heat pumps are bulky and noisy.

These disadvantages pose significant disincentives for consumers. The current mean household income in the UK is [£29,000 per year](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyear2020). Unless a ten-fold decrease in cost can be achieved to match the more modest [£1,500 price tag for a new gas boiler](https://heatable.co.uk/boiler-advice/how-much-do-new-boilers-cost), consumer acceptance will not be achieved. 

This is not to say that heat pumps should be discounted entirely. Although costly, they are a readily available technology, and those who can afford them should be encouraged to adopt. In 2022, the government will be [awarding grants of £5,000](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/10/government-to-offer-p5-000-grant-per-household-to-help-them-repl/) for 30,000 households to convert to heat pumps, covering approximately half of the upfront cost.

## Industrial heat processes

 For industrial heating, many specialized processes exist, which rules out a one-size-fits-all solution. The compilation of industrial processes also means that making a change to one part of a system forces the whole system to adapt to this change. The longer lifespans of industrial processes, often in excess of 50 years, also necessitate that newly implemented processes will not see their full life-cycle. This is a problem, as industrial heat accounts for 14% of total CO2 emissions.

Government intervention is required for guidance, support, and regulation. Fortunately, this is [already underway](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/970229/Industrial_Decarbonisation_Strategy_March_2021.pdf). Each sector will have to make an informed decision on its future fuel source. Where hydrogen is not appropriate, electrification of industrial processes could be pursued. That said, [some studies indicate](https://www.eceee.org/library/conference_proceedings/eceee_Industrial_Summer_Study/2018/4-technology-products-and-system-optimisation/electrification-of-industrial-process-heat-long-term-applications-potentials-and-impacts/) that due to feasibility and uncertainty in future unit costs, electrification may not be viable. In lieu of this, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) could provide solutions–but will again depend on viability. 

Unfortunately at this time, with so many sectors, stakeholders, and variables, little can be said about projections for decarbonization of industry. For example, [1.85 tonnes of CO2](https://envirotecmagazine.com/2021/03/19/uk-steel-industry-could-expand-in-transition-to-zero-carbon-future-says-report/) are produced for every one tonne of steel, and the yearly emissions of CO2 from steel and iron [have not dropped since 1990](https://www.statista.com/statistics/509128/greenhouse-gas-emissions-iron-steel-production-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/). Government will have to set deadlines to spur innovation in industry, and fallouts with big players must be weathered to allow the UK to reach its net 2050 targets. 

## Production and storage

There are two main avenues when considering the possible production methods of hydrogen: Green hydrogen is produced from a process called electrolysis where water is split into its constituent elements. If scalable, this is an ideal process as there are no greenhouse gases produced as a result of production. Blue hydrogen is produced from natural gas, most often through a process called steam-methane reforming (SMR). In this process the methane in natural gas (CH4) is reacted with water (H2O) to produce hydrogen (H2) and CO2. The CO2 produced is then immediately captured and stored. Current CCUS technology [removes 90% of CO2](https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Element-Energy-and-E4techCost-analysis-of-future-heat-infrastructure-Final.pdf) from this process. 

Today, around [53% of hydrogen is produced from the SMR process](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the-environment/hydrogen-production-and-uses.aspx) as it is the cheapest. [Blue hydrogen costs £55 - 65 / MWh to produce while green hydrogen costs £100 - 200 / MWh](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1011506/Hydrogen_Production_Costs_2021.pdf). In the UK the price cap for natural gas is currently at £40 / MWh so much advancement is needed before it can be made viable for the end user.

Along with the problem of production comes the problem of storage. Fossil fuels are stored underground and are tapped as required. An input fuel is required to produce hydrogen (be it natural gas or electricity), and therefore production is more complex and more prone to disruption. Storage facilities must be constructed to allow for potential disruptions, with some estimates putting this at [several GWh per year from 2025 to 2040](https://www.energynetworks.org/industry-hub/resource-library/britains-hydrogen-network-plan.pdf).

## Conclusions

1. Principally, enough production facilities must be built to satisfy demand.
2. The UK should also secure hydrogen import supply chains where domestic supplies falter.
3. It must also increase storage capacity ([currently gas storage is at 2%](https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2021/09/how-the-uks-low-gas-storage-capacity-leaves-it-vulnerable)) to counter the effects of shortages.
4. To help those living in fuel poverty, subsidies could be made ready today to prepare against uncertainties during the first few years of the hydrogen era.
5. Instead of outright ‘bans’ of traditional boilers, new non-inflammatory language should be used in describing the inevitable energy transition. Policy makers and media outlets could instead describe traditional boilers as ‘unusable after 2040,’ for example.