562 forecasters

Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022 Leaderboard

U.S. says it will defend 'every inch' of NATO territory after Poland shoots down Russian drones

NBC•Sep 13, 2025

Nato announces more air support to defend Poland against future Russian incursions

Guardian•Sep 13, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, after Putin ‘put down a marker’ to NATO

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

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