110 comments

716 forecasters

By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

25%chance

25%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 25% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolved:

Mar 17, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard

Ukraine says it assassinated Russian officer Veniamin Mazzherin in Siberia

CNN•Oct 30, 2025

Putin 'is more determined than ever' to continue Ukraine war and secure more territory to justify huge human and financial toll on Russia, US intel says

Daily Mail•Oct 29, 2025

Russian drone attacks on civilians in Ukraine are war crimes, UN report concludes

Guardian•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?