Question

Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?

Resolved:Yes

135 comments135

Total Forecasters413

Community Prediction

96%

(90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

13.0

Authors:

despear

Opened:

Jul 3, 2018

Closes:

Jul 31, 2028

Resolves:

Jul 31, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 3, 2018

Law

Politics

@DarkSideAdvcate @charliekirk11 The Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling in Medina v. Planned Parenthood South Atlantic, decided June 26, 2025, held that the Medicaid Act does not allow individuals to sue over a state's decision to exclude providers like Plann...

•Jun 26, 2025

Abortions in the US are on the rise three years after Roe v Wade was overturned

Guardian•Jun 23, 2025

US abortion rates rise three years after Dobbs' new ruling on Roe vs Wade, here's why

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.5

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

10%

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

15%

Authors:

despear

Opened:

Jul 3, 2018

Closes:

Jul 31, 2028

Resolves:

Jul 31, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 3, 2018

Law

Politics

•Jun 26, 2025

Abortions in the US are on the rise three years after Roe v Wade was overturned

Guardian•Jun 23, 2025

US abortion rates rise three years after Dobbs' new ruling on Roe vs Wade, here's why

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.5

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

10%

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

15%