Question

Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?

Resolved:No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction

51%

(40% - 63%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-2.6

Community Peer Score

3.5

Authors:

chipman

Opened:

Jul 3, 2018

Closes:

Jun 5, 2019

Resolves:

Jun 5, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 4, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

Social Sciences

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

12%

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

>Dec 2040

When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?

>Sep 2040

Authors:

chipman

Opened:

Jul 3, 2018

Closes:

Jun 5, 2019

Resolves:

Jun 5, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 4, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

Social Sciences

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

12%

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

>Dec 2040

When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?

>Sep 2040