Question

Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?

Resolved:No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction

20%

(16% - 36%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

27.4

Community Baseline Score

63.8

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jun 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

2022-2023 Leaderboard

GPS jamming of leader's plane puts Putin's hybrid warfare on Europe's radar

NBC•Sep 2, 2025

What to know about Russia’s GPS jamming operation in Europe

Associated Press•Sep 2, 2025

What is GPS jamming, and do you need to worry about your next flight?

Independent•Sep 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

28%

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?

70%