11 comments
52 forecasters
Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?
2%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 3, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 5, 2022
Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?
2% chance
77
How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026?
0.886 countries
(0.0909 - 1.37)
0.886 countries
(0.0909 - 1.37)
25 forecasters
Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?
45% chance
47