Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Ukrainian Refugees by July 2022

Ukraine Conflict


Related Questions on Metaculus:

As NPR reported early in March 2022:

"The U.N.'s top refugee official said on Wednesday that 1 million people have now fled across the borders of Ukraine since Russian forces invaded a week ago.

[...]The new total of refugees from Ukraine amounts to a little more than 2% of the country's total population of 44 million. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), around one half of all refugees are in Poland, with Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia being the other top destinations, while others have fled to various other European countries."

How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?

This question will resolve on July 1, 2022 as the Refugee arrivals from Ukraine (since 24 February 2022) reported in the Operational Data Portal of UNHCR. The question will resolve when the page has been updated on or after July 1, 2022.

Note that refugee arrivals from Ukraine who moved to the Russian Federation from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions between 18 and 23 February will not be counted as part of this resolution.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.