Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

Resolved:No

44 comments44

Total Forecasters467

Community Prediction

(1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

4.7

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 14, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

'Time to get serious on defense': A moment of truth for NATO as leaders seek unity on spending hike

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 14, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

'Time to get serious on defense': A moment of truth for NATO as leaders seek unity on spending hike

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%