467 forecasters

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

2%chance

2%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 2% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Mar 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 14, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

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