🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?

Resolved :17.211.7
12
29
Total Forecasters255
Community Prediction11.7 (5.83 - 18.3)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
5.827
11.67
18.32

What was the final result?17.2

Community Baseline Score
52.0
Community Peer Score
36.8
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Germany
Russo-Ukrainian War
Gross domestic product
NATO

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