20 comments
45 forecasters
Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?
61%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Apr 7, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 9, 2022
Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
57% chance
222
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
43% chance
92
When will we have transformative AI?
Jan 2044
(Dec 2031 - 2077)
Jan 2044
(Dec 2031 - 2077)
164 forecasters