Question

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?

Resolved:Yes
6
18
Total Forecasters44
Community Prediction
95%
(81% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-7.2
Community Peer Score
19.3
Authors:
ok
Opened:May 2, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolves:Dec 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2022
Geopolitics
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