12 comments
45 forecasters
Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?
45%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:May 28, 2020
Closes:Oct 17, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2051
Spot Scoring Time:May 30, 2020
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7% chance
48
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
1028 events
(797 - 1346)
1028 events
(797 - 1346)
37 forecasters
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
28% chance
74