Question

What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?

Resolved:871

4 comments4

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction

713

(472 - 869)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>5000
community	471.6	713.2	868.9	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	471.6	—
median	713.2	—
upper 75%	868.9	—
Upper bound
>5000	0.1%	—

What was the final result?871

Community Baseline Score

89.7

Community Peer Score

67.4

Authors:

srinivv

Opened:

Apr 8, 2022

Closes:

Apr 29, 2022

Resolves:

Jul 6, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 17, 2022

Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making

Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8

Health & Pandemics

2022 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%