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Omicron XE Dominates US by June 19, 2022

Question

Omicron XE is a recombination of the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron strains BA.1 and BA.2. It has been detected first in the UK on January 19, 2022, then in Brazil, Australia, Thailand, India, and Israel. 1,125 cases of Omicron XE have been identified in the UK, as of April 5, 2022.

On March 25, 2022, Susan Hopkins of the UK Health Security Agency stated:

This particular recombinant, XE, has shown a variable growth rate and we cannot yet confirm whether it has a true growth advantage. So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about transmissibility, severity or vaccine effectiveness.

Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?

This question will resolve as Yes if, before June 19, 2022, the Omicron XE SARS-CoV-2 variant makes up more than 50% of COVID-19 cases in the US, as estimated by the CDC COVID variant Nowcast. The two most recent weeks reported in the Nowcast are based on preliminary data and the model's forecast; to resolve this question as Yes, qualifying data must be at least 2 weeks old.

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