45 comments
233 forecasters
Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?
10%chance
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 20, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 22, 2022
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Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?
50% chance
8
Will Lawrence v. Texas be overturned by 2030?
12% chance
57
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?
33.3% chance
64