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45
comments
234
forecasters
Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?
12%
chance
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (7)
Political repercussions
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
9 votes
test2
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
Institutional and doctrinal hurdles
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Textualist interpretation
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
6 votes
test
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
Legitimacy risk
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
Court seems to have an appetite for big cases
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
9 votes
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Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Apr 20, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Apr 22, 2022
Law
Politics
News Match
Texas Supreme Court Rules Judges Can Refuse Same-Sex Marriages
Newsweek
•
Oct 30, 2025
Supreme Court to consider hearing challenge to overturn same-sex marriage
MSNBC
•
Oct 30, 2025
Obergefell Overturned?
American Thinker
•
Oct 29, 2025
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