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46
comments
233
forecasters
Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?
7.5%
chance
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (7)
Political repercussions
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
10 votes
Textualist interpretation
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Institutional and doctrinal hurdles
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
test2
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Legitimacy risk
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
Court seems to have an appetite for big cases
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
9 votes
test
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
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Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Apr 20, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Apr 22, 2022
Law
Politics
News Match
Obergefell Will Be Overturned – But We Can Wait
Townhall
•
Nov 17, 2025
Kim Davis Was Never Going to Get Gay Marriage Overturned
American Spectator
•
Nov 13, 2025
Same-sex marriage was never in danger. SCOTUS' Kim Davis decision shows it. | Opinion
USA Today
•
Nov 11, 2025
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