45 comments
234 forecasters

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

10%chance
Top Key Factors
Political repercussions
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
test2
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1 vote
Textualist interpretation
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Increases Likelihood
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5 votes
Institutional and doctrinal hurdles
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Decreases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Legitimacy risk
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Court seems to have an appetite for big cases
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
test
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Increases Likelihood
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0 vote