34 comments
122 forecasters
Will Boris Johnson fail to be elected in the next UK General Election?
70%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 70% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 21, 2022
Closes:Sep 30, 2024
Resolved:Jul 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2022
Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?
0.1% chance
111
Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?
25% chance
39
When will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister?
06 Nov 2028
(28 Jan 2027 - 11 Apr 2030)
06 Nov 2028
(28 Jan 2027 - 11 Apr 2030)
15 forecasters