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What are the most useful tools/data sources in making predictions?

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We're creating a collection of useful tools and data sources, and would love to hear from you what you find helpful. These might include:

  • Commonly used datasets for question creation or answering.

  • Helpful online tools for statistics, probabilities, regressions, etc.

  • Resources for good prediction techniques, debiasing, etc.

And so on. (If you make your suggestions in individual comments we can smiley-vote them as well.)

Categories:
Metaculus Itself

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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