397 forecasters

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022-2023 Leaderboard

The Coalition of the Willing is unwilling to defend Ukraine

Spectator (UK)•Sep 5, 2025

What guarantees has Macron’s ‘coalition of the willing’ promised Ukraine?

Al Jazeera•Sep 5, 2025

Putin says western troops in Ukraine would be ‘legitimate targets’ as European countries pledge security support – Europe live

Guardian•Sep 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch