397 forecasters

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Zelenskyy calls for European air defense system as Russia bombards southern Ukraine

PBS NewsHour•Sep 17, 2025

Make Putin fear you: Ukraine says it's time Trump took a 'clear position' on Russia

NBC•Sep 16, 2025

Zelensky Presses Trump for 'Clear Position' on Ukraine

Newsweek•Sep 16, 2025

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