Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

Pending

This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

Date of Ukrainian Control of Kherson

Flourishing Futures Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News Red Lines in Ukraine

Question

Kherson (Херсо́н) is a city of 280,000 people in the south of Ukraine, and the administrative center of Kherson Oblast. It's a port with access to both the Black Sea and the Dnipro River (including a bridge crossing).

On March 2, 2022, the city fell under Russian control in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 6 days after the war began. As of May 4, 2022, Kherson is the only capital city of one of Ukraine's provinces to have fallen since the invasion began on February 24, 2022.

Russia has made moves for a long-term occupation, including changing the currency to ruble, and preparing to hold a referendum to create a splinter republic in the model of the DPR and LPR.

Since taking Kherson, Russian forces have failed to push West towards Odessa, nor have they managed to take the city of Mykolaiv to the Northwest of Kherson. Russian forces did make progress on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro, capturing the entirety of Kherson Oblast.

As the Russian offensive in the war shifts focus towards the Donbas front, it appears that Ukrainian forces are progressing at pushing back Russian troops elsewhere, including the front near Kherson, putting a possible liberation of the city in the cards.

When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?

This question will resolve as the next date after May 1, 2022 when the Ukrainian government or military has control over the city of Kherson, according Institute for the Study of War or credible media reports.

For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will "control" Kherson if they have de facto control of over 50% of the city's administrative area for at least 7 days. The resolution date will be the end of this 7-day period, to the closest approximation based on available reports. This question may resolve on such a date even if Ukraine loses control of Kherson in the future.

If Ukraine does not regain control of the city as defined above by January 1, 2024, the question will resolve as > January 1, 2024.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.