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Russian Declaration of War on Ukraine 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Question

US and Ukrainian officials have said that Russia could declare formal war on Ukraine as soon as 9 May 2022. (CNN report). A formal declaration of war is necessary under Russian law for a general mobilization of Russian society under a wartime footing, which would allow Russia's military to draft conscripts and reserves en masse, in order to solve its current manpower shortages.

According to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the U.S. Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), "Without a national mobilization, the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state and availability of forces." (Source) (See also "War on the Rocks" podcast discussion here.)

Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?

This question will resolve as Yes if Russia publicly announces that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine, before August 1, 2022.

"Ukraine" is defined as the state within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, led by the Ukrainian government recognized by the European Union. This declaration of war language is understood to include any and all euphemisms such as "the Kyiv regime," subject to the judgment of the Metaculus admins.

"Credible media" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times.

The absence of any such announcement will resolve this question as "no" on July 31, 2022.

The Metaculus admins determine resolution of this question and have sole discretion.

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