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57 forecasters

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57 forecasters

Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?

ResolvedNo

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10 comments53 forecasters

Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030

Current estimate

3 comments9 forecasters

Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?

0 comments13 forecasters

Dates Publicly Downloadable Large AI Models

6 comments60 forecasters

When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?

Current estimate

13 comments13 forecasters

5 million token context AI

Current estimate

0 comments25 forecasters

Dates Large AI Models Released

11 comments20 forecasters

Transformers Still SoTA in 2027?

4 comments2 forecasters

Exfiltration of Compute-Intensive AI Models

Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e3299.4%

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e3287.7%

Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e2877.5%

Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e3072.8%

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26result: No