Question
When will a living human first reach a distance of one light year from Earth?
Total Forecasters64
Community Prediction
2414
(2151 - >3000)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2151 | — |
| median | 2414 | — |
| upper 75% | >3000 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >3000 | 29.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 14, 2022
Closes:Apr 5, 2063
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 3000
Spot Scoring Time:May 14, 2022
Authors:
Opened:May 14, 2022
Closes:Apr 5, 2063
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 3000
Spot Scoring Time:May 14, 2022