60 forecasters

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

1%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 13, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2022

2021-2025 Leaderboard

UK-US nuclear deal: what does it mean and will it really lead to a ‘golden age’?

Guardian•Sep 15, 2025

AUKUS: Australia Announce Plans for $8 Billion Nuclear Sub Shipyard

Breitbart•Sep 14, 2025

‘A facility for them’: Labor says WA shipyard to be used by US for sub maintenance as it commits $12bn

Guardian•Sep 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

(Feb 2036 - Mar 2048)

(Feb 2036 - Mar 2048)

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?