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Trump reelected by November 10th 2020
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
Note: This question is conditional on timely results. We made another one here which is not.
Will President Donald Trump be reelected for a second term in 2020? This means that he will
(a) not be removed beforehand,
(b) actually run for a second term, and
(c) legally defeat other presidential nominees.
Resolution is based on consensus major-media declaration that enough states have been called for or against Trump to give more than 50% of the total electors to one candidate.
It does not imply that Trump will necessarily serve a second term, even if elected, and in particular does not account for events that may occur between election night and swearing in.
Resolution is ambiguous if a major media call has not been made as of one week after the election; in this case one or more alternative questions will be launched.
If Trump dies or is removed from office by any means prior to the election, question resolves negative, and will retroactively close one week prior to the takeover of the Presidential office by Pence or another party.
If Trump publicly declares that he will not seek re-election, question resolves negative on the date when it becomes essentially impossible for him to become the Republican nominee, with a retroactive closing date 1 day prior to the public declaration.
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