Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Trump reelected by November 10th 2020

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Note: This question is conditional on timely results. We made another one here which is not.

Will President Donald Trump be reelected for a second term in 2020? This means that he will

(a) not be removed beforehand,

(b) actually run for a second term, and

(c) legally defeat other presidential nominees.

Resolution is based on consensus major-media declaration that enough states have been called for or against Trump to give more than 50% of the total electors to one candidate.

It does not imply that Trump will necessarily serve a second term, even if elected, and in particular does not account for events that may occur between election night and swearing in.

Resolution is ambiguous if a major media call has not been made as of one week after the election; in this case one or more alternative questions will be launched.

If Trump dies or is removed from office by any means prior to the election, question resolves negative, and will retroactively close one week prior to the takeover of the Presidential office by Pence or another party.

If Trump publicly declares that he will not seek re-election, question resolves negative on the date when it becomes essentially impossible for him to become the Republican nominee, with a retroactive closing date 1 day prior to the public declaration.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.