Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Trump reelected by November 10th 2020


Note: This question is conditional on timely results. We made another one here which is not.

Will President Donald Trump be reelected for a second term in 2020? This means that he will

(a) not be removed beforehand,

(b) actually run for a second term, and

(c) legally defeat other presidential nominees.

Resolution is based on consensus major-media declaration that enough states have been called for or against Trump to give more than 50% of the total electors to one candidate.

It does not imply that Trump will necessarily serve a second term, even if elected, and in particular does not account for events that may occur between election night and swearing in.

Resolution is ambiguous if a major media call has not been made as of one week after the election; in this case one or more alternative questions will be launched.

If Trump dies or is removed from office by any means prior to the election, question resolves negative, and will retroactively close one week prior to the takeover of the Presidential office by Pence or another party.

If Trump publicly declares that he will not seek re-election, question resolves negative on the date when it becomes essentially impossible for him to become the Republican nominee, with a retroactive closing date 1 day prior to the public declaration.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.