166 forecasters

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%chance

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 1, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 1, 2022

The Taiwan Tinderbox

US Reacts to Confrontation Between China and Treaty Ally

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2025

China issues warning to Britain as UK and US send warships through Taiwan Strait

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Taiwan’s new civil defense handbook aims to boost public readiness as China tensions persist

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

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