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301 forecasters

43

301 forecasters

Biosecurity Tournament

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

5%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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5 comments25 forecasters

Highest Pandemic Death Toll 2022-2121

Current estimate

2 comments21 forecasters

WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030

12 comments25 forecasters

Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

1 comment9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2040?

10 comments57 forecasters

5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?

2 comments166 forecasters

Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?

18 comments26 forecasters

Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?

1 comment18 forecasters

H5N1 pandemic before 2030