34 comments
301 forecasters
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?
5%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 9, 2022
Closed:Jan 10, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 11, 2022
What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?
38.2M deaths
(11.8M - 100M)
38.2M deaths
(11.8M - 100M)
22 forecasters
How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?
74.3k deaths
(27.8k - 219k)
74.3k deaths
(27.8k - 219k)
39 forecasters
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54