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284 forecasters

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284 forecasters

AI Demonstrations

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%chance

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71 comments421 forecasters

AI book comprehension before 2030

16 comments177 forecasters

Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030

15 comments81 forecasters

2027 AI Bet winner between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?

Miles Brundage12%

20 comments38 forecasters

AI-generated movie accomplishments

>$10M Box Office15 Aug 2028

Award Nomination02 Jul 2028

Tops Netflix30 Jun 2028

Animated Feature11 Apr 2027

Festival Feature06 Feb 2027

72 comments326 forecasters

AI as a competent cook before 2030

11 comments142 forecasters

AI verification of math proofs by 2030

24 comments242 forecasters

AI Programming Competency before 2030

1 comment17 forecasters

Question Answering on Long Texts by 2030

Current estimate