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421 forecasters

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421 forecasters

AI Demonstrations

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99.9%chance

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27 comments284 forecasters

AI movie comprehension before 2030

16 comments177 forecasters

Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030

11 comments142 forecasters

AI verification of math proofs by 2030

15 comments81 forecasters

2027 AI Bet winner between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?

Miles Brundage12%

24 comments242 forecasters

AI Programming Competency before 2030

72 comments326 forecasters

AI as a competent cook before 2030

1 comment17 forecasters

Question Answering on Long Texts by 2030

Current estimate

3 comments25 forecasters

Question Answering on Long Texts by 2040

Current estimate