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242 forecasters

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242 forecasters

AI Demonstrations

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

98%chance

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16 comments177 forecasters

Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030

11 comments142 forecasters

AI verification of math proofs by 2030

72 comments326 forecasters

AI as a competent cook before 2030

71 comments421 forecasters

AI book comprehension before 2030

15 comments81 forecasters

2027 AI Bet winner between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?

Miles Brundage12%

27 comments284 forecasters

AI movie comprehension before 2030

24 comments143 forecasters

AI Competency on Competitive Programming

Current estimate

2 comments118 forecasters

AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?