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49 comments
276 forecasters

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, which system(s) will be attacked?

CommunicationsAmbiguous
Banking/FinanceAmbiguous
Electrical gridAmbiguous
Authors:
casens
Opened:Feb 26, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Ukraine Conflict
Economy & Business
Technology
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
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Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9% chance
31

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

Deny some entities
15%
Deny ≤99 countries
8%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
0.5%
4 others
25 forecasters

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

10k / month
13%
30k / month
9%
300k / year
6%
2 others
40 forecasters
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