Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Winner of 2024 US Presidential Election

Question

Related Question on Metaculus:


Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted that he would.

The previous US President Donald Trump has expressed several hints of his desire to run for re-election, stopping short of officially filing his campaign.

The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes for the person who wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, and No for all other options. This will be the person who wins the majority of votes in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

This question is not limited to the individuals currently listed below; the question may resolve as No for all listed options, and options may be added later.

This question does not require that the individual winning the 2024 Election wins the popular vote, be projected by news media as winning the election, or to be officially inaugurated or perform any duty of the US President, only that they have been selected by the Electoral College or by US Congress.

In the event that there is no election or certification of the vote by February 1, 2025, this question will resolve as Ambiguous for all options.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.